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DANGEROUS NEW YEAR’S PREDICTIONS
Transportation Trends for Maine and the Nation for 2010 and Beyond
by Bill Drinkwater, Executive Director, EVMaine.org
December 31st, 2009
“The future ain’t what it used to be.”
-- Yogi Berra, Famous baseball wag
Economic Overview
The U.S. Economy:
The U.S. economy will continue to deteriorate due to the astronomical national debt. The price of gasoline will hover around $3 to $4 a gallon, and it might even drop a little due to reduced national demand. However, less average income due to massive unemployment will reduce the average amount of traffic on U.S. roads, in spite of any reduction in gasoline prices. It appears that our “Happy Motoring” days of driving anywhere, anytime we want to, are now at an end.
The “Defuncting” Dollar:
The U.S. dollar will continue to devalue putting upward pressure on the price of gasoline, and only the considerably reduced demand for gasoline in the U.S. due to steadily worsening economic conditions is likely to keep the price of fuel fairly stable.
Car Sales Nationwide:
The high gas mileage, instead of the fast-accelerating, types of hybrids will become even more popular for those who can still afford to purchase a new vehicle in spite of the new car buying credit system, which will remain very tight. Hybrid cars are a higher mileage transition technology that will be phased out as soon as the range of battery powered electric cars is considerably more miles per charge due to better batteries.
The Ford Motor Company’s move toward producing lots of smaller cars is a very wise decision. Too bad they don’t want to hire Americans, instead of Mexicans and Turks to make them. That would be a real win-win situation.1
Luxury cars and all other expensive cars will become “boutique” items sold only in very small numbers to those who are still wealthy.
Unfortunately, many new electric cars are coming on the market with too-high initial price tags, so the electric car manufacturers with the largest and most expensive sedans are quite likely to fail before their high tech battery prices come down in a couple of years due to mass production, and allow them to reduce their vehicle prices substantially.
The Tesla Motor Company might be able to avoid those problems because they are already in production of their prestigious sports car, plus they have potentially workable smaller/less expensive electric car plans.2
I predict that the $40,000 Chevy Volt 3 will fail in the marketplace due to a lousy economy and lack of availability of car-buying credit (how many people have $40,000 cash in their pocket for a new car?). I further predict that Chevrolet will then blame the American public by repeating their 2003 mantra (after they killed the EV-1) that “Americans just don’t want electric cars.”4 (Ed. note; New rumors have placed the price point of the Volt between $30,000 and $35,000. If true, this gives GM a better chance at somewhat wider sales of the Volt, but still within the context of a continuing bum economy.)
The electric Aptera could have blockbuster sales IF they started taking trade-ins. With around 300 miles per gallon equivalent in this streamlined, three-wheeled wonder, it outstrips all the competition by a country mile in efficiency!5
Hopefully at least the smaller, less expensive mass-produced electric cars such as the Chinese/US Zap three-wheeled cars and trucks, which are already in production and well established6, the coming Japanese Nissan Leaf7, the future Chinese Coda8 and the already well established Indian Reva9 (called the “Gee Whiz” in England, where it is also very popular,) will experience considerable worldwide sales and help establish at least small electric cars as a “normal” mode of transportation, even in the minds of many Americans.
Meanwhile, China has started making many different small electric cars, and after a shakeout period some of them will likely do well in sales in the U.S. IF trade barriers are not erected to save American corporations, and IF the U.S. economy doesn’t plummet too far into the doldrums.
A strong “Buy American” patriotic campaign to help economic recovery here will boost domestic auto companies’ sales somewhat, and that will be amplified if any major defect recalls are necessary here by foreign-made auto brands.
Our Vehicle Maintenance Problem:
We have a serious problem with vehicle maintenance in this country. Almost no one is talking about the fact that today’s vehicles have been made so high tech that repairs, which are historically done by the owners themselves during tough economic times, are no longer possible on newer vehicles.10
While no one was looking our new cars were purposely specialized and “high teched” by the auto manufacturers to the point where only the car dealerships and a few very specially equipped, expensive private car repair shops can repair today’s vehicles.
Therefore, for unemployed Americans car repairs will often become simply unaffordable, and the result will be many unrepaired and unsafe vehicles being driven on our roads, and with many other vehicles having been taken off the roads for need of expensive repairs. This will frustrate a formerly car-entitled populace and force many of them to have to walk, or ride a bicycle. Sure, that’s good exercise, but don’t try to tell them that as you whiz by on the highway in your new Lexus.
And how will the newly-carless commute to work if they do find a new job? (The future answer, of course, will be to live near your job.)
We have all heard about the Cubans keeping 50 year old American cars running, but those cars are entirely mechanical. With no computer chips or sensitive pollution controls to deal with they are repairable without the “help” of high tech parts or computer-to-car diagnostic hookups. Any ‘shade tree mechanic’ with a wrench and a rock can work on a ‘53 Ford!
So as this economy declines, it is obvious, as mentioned above, that more and more people will simply be priced out of car repairs. That will violate Americans’ ingrained sense of car-entitlement and will breed a very serious psychological discontinuity in this car-centered culture. (Anyone remember when we went to the moon, we even had to take cars along with us then. After all, Americans couldn’t be expected to have to walk everywhere, not even on the moon!11)
I predict serious dissatisfaction will arise as local mass transit is suddenly discovered by the newly-disenfranchised to be either completely absent, or not up to the task. These frustrations are sure to boil over into civil disorder in some locales.
I therefore predict that many politicians will implement a simple, local solution: a widespread comandeering of local school bus systems for public mass transit, as an instant and relatively inexpensive way to help allieviate this serious problem, at least for a while. At some point the price of gasoline or diesel fuel for the buses will skyrocket, and a different solution will have to be found.
Climate Change:
America will considerably reduce its annual massive pollution contribution of poop into the atmosphere and oceans, and this will please many people in other countries. However, this will occur as a direct result of a substantial decline in our GDP, less car and truck usage, and fewer imports - not because Americans have voluntarily cut back, or our politicians have magically become sane.
The Future of Transportation in the State of Maine
State Roads:
The State of Maine, facing reduced federal help as well as cratered local tax revenues, will have little choice but to further reduce state road maintenance operations. Therefore average road conditions in Maine can be expected to rapidly deteriorate as spring frost damage goes unrepaired. So in the future it will take longer to get anywhere, at the same time making daily commutes both more tiresome and more damaging to our vehicles - see repair issues above.
Town and Rural Roads:
Many Maine towns will turn their town-maintained paved roads back to gravel as the price of asphalt and repaving steadily continues to rise beyond redemption. Vienna, Maine has already suggested that it be done to their roads.12 The State of Michigan has shown us the way having already converted many miles of their rural roads back to gravel surfaces. “Montcalm County converted nearly 10 miles of primary road to gravel this spring. The county estimates it takes about $10,000 to grind up a mile of pavement and put down gravel. It takes more than $100,000 to repave a mile of road. Reverting to gravel has happened in a few other states but it is most typical in Michigan. At least 50 miles have been reverted in the state in the past three years.”13
Vehicle Insurance:
I predict that all vehicle insurance companies will raise their rates. Wow, that was an easy one! Deflation? Not for them!
Vehicle Registration Fees:
Since all towns and cities in Maine are/will be strapped for cash, you can expect that the legislature will raise many fees, including all vehicle and tow-trailer registration fees which are shared with the municipalities. After that, in a spirit of solidarity, all towns and cities will together sing “Kum Bay Yah” and then raise all of their other fees.
Gas Tax Equivalent:
Still under wraps, the Maine Department of Transportation has a gas tax equivalent scheme planned for electric and other alternative fuel vehicles based upon a tax of so much per mile/per year when the mileage is routinely reported during annual vehicle re-registrations. Although not yet implemented, this will be, of course, a disincentive to buying an electric or other alternative fueled vehicle since it will claim the savings you accumulated by not having to pay gasoline taxes - because you didn’t use any. People who haven’t used any gasoline in the past year should instead be given a hero’s medal. I predict they won’t get the medal.
The Maine DOT doesn’t seem to yet realize how important it is to reduce our reliance on foreign oil for national security reasons and to help reduce vehicle pollution, so they have decided instead to emulate the Banksters and grab every penny they can crush out of the already beleagered and weary taxpayers of Maine.
Oh, and by the way, the State of Maine has a mandate for all State Departments to find ways to reduce vehicle pollution. Are you listening DOT?
Throughout Europe many financial incentives are already in place to encourage the driving of electric cars, including no road taxes, free parking, free charging while parked and no inner-city congestion fees, but I predict we will not see any of those perks here.
Acceptance of Electric Cars and Trucks:
Slower vehicles, such as low speed electric cars and trucks (25 mph maximum) and Maine’s new category of three-wheeled, enclosed cab ‘autocycles’ (45 mph maximum) will become more accepted as fewer cars are crowding our roads in the future, and more of the gasoline powered vehicles are being driven slower to substantially increase their mpg, and to avoid damage from those ubiquitous future potholes.
The cost advantages of electric cars will finally be recognized because being much simpler mechanically, their fuel and maintenance costs are considerably lower and, unlike gasoline, their cheaper ‘fuel’ can even come from the owner’s backyard. Electricity from the wind, sunlight or a backyard stream (microhydroelectric generator) is no doubt a better and cleaner fuel for cars than a very heavy and very polluting liquid that mostly has to be imported from other countries, and is subject to ‘minor’ political interruptions, such as embargos and wars, not to mention worldwide natural depletion.
A few Mainers will choose to convert their gasoline cars to battery electric power, and a much smaller number of Mainers will choose to build their own electric vehicle from scratch - so they’ll be able to understand and repair almost every part themselves.
A few Maine businesses will be established that will convert people’s gasoline cars to electric, although a weakened economy will stunt the growth of these companies because such a conversion is quite expensive.
Undoubtedly, some Mainers, and possibly even many, will switch their gasoline cars over to run on natural gas. Although this is a much cheaper coversion than changing a car from gasoline to electricity, natural gas is still a fossil fuel that pollutes, plus it can have the same pricing and supply interruption problems as gasoline because natural gas is also not produced in Maine.
Electric Car Charging Outlets:
Many Maine towns and cities will eventually designate an outside electric outlet (probably already existing on a municipal building) for electric cars to use to recharge, and will require the purchase of a vehicle window sticker from the town/city office which will pay for occasionally using this convenient service.
Wealthier towns might instead choose to install a national electric car charging system that operates on a debit or credit card, if such cards still exist. These systems mostly cost around $2,000 to purchase and install. The fast chargers for larger electric cars are much more expensive so it is likely that they will mostly be found in owners’ garages.
If electric cars catch on sooner, rather than later, some savvy local shop owners will also offer an outlet in front of their businesses. And how about those franchised stores that sell only batteries adding an outside outlet for charging? C’mon small businesspeople, wake up to the future!
A few visionary Mainers will start various types of delivery businesses based around electric vehicles, which are ideal for short haul, stop and go operation. They know that no matter what happens to the economy or to foreign oil supplies, they will still be able to continue their deliveries reliably into the future using ‘free’ fuel from their wind turbine or solar panels, while their many gasoline-powered customers won’t be able to get to town as frequently as they used to. Therefore, lots of new types of local businesses are possible using this paradigm: How about local eggs, milk and cheese deliveries, like in the “good old days”, or local manure delivery to all those organic backyard gardens? Ford will have an electric version of their little Ford Transit delivery vehicle which will be ideal for local delivery tasks available in 3Q 2010.14
I predict that the small electric car manufacturer in Norridgewock, Maine, Sunn Solar Electric Kit Cars15 will continue to see a steady increase in demand from both Maine and around the country for their practical and very affordable, two-person, low speed electric cars and trucks. They can be registered and insured for much less than expected, and with a 30 mile range per charge, are perfect for running your local errands using minimal, local energy sources to power them.
Bicycles, etc:
Many Mainers will soon join a new, healthy and practical trend toward riding bicycles for those short trips to town, etc. Within that group will also be a variety of battery electric powered bicycles, especially for the Seniors. Savvy local businesses will quickly erect bicycle racks in front of their stores. And this new, widespread usage will also provide opportunities for local entrepreneurs to establish more bicycle repair businesses and even to manufacture bicycle racks.
Many very practical electric scooters, plus a smattering of electric motorcycles, will also ply our roads regularly in the future. The riders will find it much easier to navigate around the many potholes on two wheels, rather than four. And don’t worry, most Americans will weigh less in the future, so the little scooters will work just fine.
Although Dmitry Orlov says that shopping carts will become our trucks of the future, I won’t venture quite that far in my predictions. But keep an eye out for them anyway whenever you’re driving just so you don’t injure a pedestrian as we discover more and more of them are being pushed along our roadsides.16
Good luck in your transportation future.
“Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rise and fall,
and you can foresee the future too.”
-- Marcus Aurelius, Emperor of Rome, AD 161-180
Footnotes:
1 The Ford Motor Company Here
2 Tesla Motors Here
3 The 2011 Chevy Volt Here
4 Who Killed the Electric Car? DVD (webpage requires free Flash Player 7) Here
5 The Aptera 3-wheeled electric car Here
6 Zap 3-wheeled electric cars and trucks Here
7 The Nissan Leaf Here
8 The Chinese Coda Here
9 The Reva from India Here
10 High-tech cars are trouble for some mechanics Here
11 The electric U.S. Moon Rover Here
12 Citing Money Trouble, Vienna Proposes Dirt Roads Here
13 Third World: Michigan reverting back to gravel roads. Here
14 Ford’s First Electric Car is a Delivery Van Here
15 Maine’s Sunn Solar Electric Kit Cars Here
16 “Reinventing Collapse, the Soviet Example and American Prospects” by Dmitry Orlov Here
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Arnie
I agree with it all. I think the bad economy will postpone the electric vehicle transition for a long time in this country. Electric cars will evolve in China and India (sad) where they have the money and lack of fuel. Our local and state governments are going to pile on taxes and fees on everything they can think of to try to stay afloat. The people will just stop buying.
JJ
Sounds about right your predictions for 2010. Are we in the future or what? Who'd of thought it would end up this way? Microsoft's Steve Ballmer prefers to euphemistically call our “Great Recession "a fundamental reset," whereas another CEO opines that our consumer patterns are structurally broker (we are transitioning to a can't borrow, can't buy mindset, and it isn't reconciling itself easily to the new "Age of Less.")
Some still just don't get it. Larry Fink of Blackrock Inc thinks the "economy will take three to five years to get back to normal." And I say we are back to normal -- this is the new normal and we have more normal to go. Normal is anywhere we have not been, terra incognita.
I read once that a hundred years ago walking was the way the vast majority of people got around, and all this time I thought it was with horses. The horseless buggy did not replace horses, it eliminated walking. Now it's back to walking, instead of being carried in a cart, we're going to be pushing one (as you aptly pointed out) -- again, back to walking. Maybe the new normal will be going back in time and not forward into the future. I think in reality that it is always some kind of a paradox, i.e., a little bit of both.
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